Ukraine: Der lange Weg nach Westen

Nach der Orangen Revolution befindet sich die Ukraine wieder auf der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Landkarte Europas. Die neue Regierung hat ein ehrgeiziges Reformprogramm lanciert, das die ukrainische Wirtschaft mittelfristig in die EU führen soll. Dieser Bericht von Deutsche Bank Research befasst sich mit der Frage, wie lang der Weg nach Europa sein wird.

• The “orange revolution” has put Ukraine back on the European map. The country’s prospects for economic development have improved visibly. This report looks at Ukraine’s economic outlook after its political rebirth and presents scenarios for its medium-term growth prospects.
• With a population of 50 million, Ukraine has considerable economic potential. On a medium-term horizon it could achieve economic growth in excess of 5%, provided the investment environment improves noticeably. Whether Ukraine will be able to fully exploit its growth potential will depend above all on economic diversification, an increase in the investment ratio and stepping up the pace of institutional reforms.
• The reform window is wide open. Robust growth and the great popularity of both President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko offer a favourable environment for far-reaching structural reform. But the population has equally great expectations. A critical mass of reforms must be initiated in the coming months. Ukraine still has substantial catching-up to do, especially as regards the quality of its legal system and its public administration.
• The government in Kiev is well aware of the manifold political and economic obstacles that could get in the way of quick progress. Taking a careful, consensus-oriented and pragmatic approach, the government will have to strike a balance between the interests of West and East Ukraine as well as the influential “clans”. Also, it will need to consider the country’s close economic, political and cultural ties to its neighbour, Russia.
• The new political leadership intends to link the economic reform process over the long term to preparations for potential membership in the EU. An external anchor – the prospect of joining the EU – would considerably increase the chances of success for the reform efforts. The powers of transformation related to EU membership represent one of the most important lessons learned from the last fifteen years of transformation in eastern Europe. Stabilisation of investor confidence and inflows of new foreign direct investment (FDI) will hinge decisively on the EU’s reaction to the new political era in Kiev.
• The EU, though, has not yet decided whether it is prepared to support Ukraine’s membership possibly even in spite of Russia’s reservations and welcome Ukraine into the European fold. This question of principle, which would markedly change Europe’s geopolitical landscape once again, has yet to be answered. Expectations linked to Mr. Yushchenko’s presidency must be realistic. The road West is long – but it is open again for Ukraine.

To read the full report, visit the Deutsche Bank Research website.