Ukraine am Scheideweg

Die Ukraine müsse eine Entscheidung treffen: Entweder müsse sie sich ernsthaft an der euro-atlantischen Integration beteiligen und sich den Nationen der Demokratie und der freien Märkte anschließen, oder sie müsse eine ‚Grauzone’ der europäischen Peripherie bleiben, indem sie ihre traditionell engen Beziehungen zu Russland wiederbelebe. Dies schreibt Marek Dabrowski in einem Papier des Centre for Social and Economic Research (CASE), das im Vorfeld der ukrainischen Wahlen veröffentlicht wurde.

Ukraine has broken with its Soviet and totalitarian past but its democracy is still relatively young and fragile and therefore vulnerable to various political shocks, believes Dabrowski. 

Basic civil and economic freedoms are not well protected due to numerous legal and institutional imperfections, most notably a poorly-performing judiciary, the author argues. 

He also states that despite Ukraine’s success in building the basic institutional foundations of a market economy, its capitalism is still heavily distorted and its economic transition far from complete. 

According to the paper, the economic landscape is still dominated by so-called ‚oligarchs‘, whose short-term interests override the interests of SME owners, foreign investors and consumers due to non-transparent political mechanisms. 

Although the economy is growing at a relatively high rate, the long-term sustainability of this growth will depend on an improvement in the investment climate, the author states. 

Similarly to other CIS countries, Ukraine is in urgent need of new reforms, primarily to address institutional and structural weaknesses, according to the CASE paper. Policymakers have to go well beyond the purely economic agenda and also address issues of legal, administrative and political reforms. 

The author regards such reforms as absolutely critical for creating a healthy business environment and integrating Ukraine with the world and European economy. Failure to design, launch and implement these reforms could undermine prospects of economic growth, the paper warns. 

Furthermore, the author considers Ukraine’s road to EU and NATO membership to be more difficult than that of the central and eastern European countries, due to the weaker external incentives for Ukraine to act in comparison with those countries which joined the EU in the last three years. 

According to the author, the country is deeply divided in political, cultural and regional terms and therefore he does not expect a clear winner to emerge from this September’s parliamentary elections.

He even forecasts an ongoing political struggle until at least the 2009 presidential election. The only solution would be a wide cross-party political consensus, he concludes.