Stärkung der Beziehungen EU-Ukraine: Wirksamere Maßnahmen erforderlich

Vor dem Hintergrund der Aussichten auf einen demokratischen
Ausgang der „Orangen Revolution“ in der Ukraine
untersucht Wojciech Saryusz-Wolski 
vom European Policy Centre  die
Herausforderungen, denen die Ukraine nun gegenüber steht, sowie die
Notwendigkeit, dass die Europäische Union den jüngsten
„Aktionsplan“ für ihre Nachbarschaftspolitik weiter ausbaut, um die
wirtschaftlichen und politischen Entwicklungen in dem Land zu
unterstützen. Er vertritt die Auffassung, dass die EU-Staats- und
Regierungschefs, die im Dezember in Brüssel zusammenkommen,
deutlich machen, dass sie die europäische Neuausrichtung des
Landes unterstützen.

Introduction

For the European Union, struggling to digest the accession of 10
new Member States in central Europe and the Mediterranean, Turkey’s
application for membership, not to mention the Constitutional
Treaty and the forthcoming Financial Perspectives for 2007 – 2013,
the Ukrainian “Orange Revolution” had further complicated the EU’s
already formidable political agenda. The prospects for Ukraine and
its future relationship with the EU will, inevitably, also loom
large during the Union’s Heads of Government summit in Brussels
this week.

The Union institutions did deliver their political message on
the rigged presidential elections clearly and on time. With both
Ukrainians and the international community determined to guarantee
a fair re-run of the second round of the presidential elections on
26 December, democracy is now likely to prevail. The awakening of
civil society, unprecedented in scale, has changed the political
situation in the region to the point of no return. As the cameras
of major global broadcasters disappear from the centre of Kiev and
much fewer opportunities for fiery public speeches in defence of
democratic principles present themselves, the energy of the
thousands of protestors should be channelled into the building and
consolidating of an open and prosperous Ukrainian society.

Ukraine in the months ahead

The “Orange Revolution’s” struggle in Ukraine ended with a
compromise agreement after seventeen days of massive protests
between the opposition and the ruling regime. The compromise
package comprises changes to the country’s electoral law and the
electoral commission, which should allow for a relatively fair
repetition of the second round of the presidential elections. In
addition, it also includes a constitutional reform that protects
the sphere of influence and the interests of the current
administration. 

Along with the reform of the electoral law, the increased
attention paid to the vote on behalf of the Ukrainian society along
with better monitoring efforts by the international community
should prevent major irregularities during the upcoming vote.
Moreover, the enhanced pluralism of the media, on the one hand and
growing fear of prosecution for fraud among state administrators on
the other hand, will also serve this purpose. The opinion polls and
exit ballots taken following the last vote, as well as the current
assessments by Ukrainian sociologists give rise to the belief that
following fair elections in December, opposition candidate Victor
Yushchenko will become Ukraine’s next President.

The planned constitutional reform will change the political
system of Ukraine from a presidential system into one of
parliamentary governance. On the one hand this should be seen as a
positive change, as it will be the first country among the New
Independent States to have such a system in place, while most other
countries in the region with strong presidential systems are
developing diverse kinds of authoritarian and quasi-authoritarian
regimes. However, given the current Ukrainian context it could also
mean a dilution of would-be President Yushchenko’s reformist
political agenda. The current Parliament is highly diffuse and
dominated by those MPs who maintain ties to the various oligarchies
– the very backbone of current President Leonid Kuchma’s regime.
After the emotions settle and the protesters vanish from the
streets, the reforms needed to modernize the country might simply
not find a large enough majority in the chamber.

To read the article in full, visit the European Policy Centre website.