Russisch-algerische Zusammenarbeit und die "Gas-OPEC"

Hakim Darbouche, Wissenschaftler am Centre of European Policy Studies (CEPS), untersucht die Möglichkeit der Bildung einer „Gas-OPEC“ und den Stand der Russland-Algerien-EU-Beziehungen. Er argumentiert, dass die Bedenken bezüglich der „Gas-OPEC“ übertrieben seien.

According to the author, the recent statements by Algerian President Bouteflika and Russian President Putin expressing interest in the construction of a ‚Gas-OPEC‘ has raised concern in Europe that Russia is further striving to „use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy“. For their part, the Russian and Algerian leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. 

Darbouche traces EU concern back to the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute of 1 January 2006 as the moment when Europeans realised the „extent of their energy dependence on a ‘partner’ apparently ready to go to great lengths to restore its influence in its own immediate neighbourhood.“

However, it was in August 2006 that fears over a possible cartelisation of the gas market were first heard. This followed the signing of a Mememorandum of Understanding between Gazprom and Sonatrach, which between them account for nearly 40% of Europe’s gas supplies (26% from Russia and 12% from Algeria).

The author says that it was „the discretion and the opacity surrounding the conclusion of the agreement which sparked this anxiety,“ and that it has been a subject of concern for those European countries heavily dependant on either source since then.

Darbouche concludes by saying that Russia-Algerian cooperation appears, prima facie „to be a move aimed at coordinating not just their upstream activities but also the downstream, including controlling gas prices and volumes.“ However, he believes that the „triadic relationship between Russia-Algeria-EU shows that a gas cartel is an unlikely eventuality and that fears of a gas OPEC have been exaggerated.“ This, he argues, is largely due to the fact that Russia and Algeria lack a shared geopolitical ground in their relations with the EU.