Ein Sozialdemokrat gewinnt in Kroatien – auf dem Balkan geht es voran

„Der erdrutschartige Sieg von Ivo Josipovi? bei den kroatischen Präsidentschaftswahlen am 10. Januar ist ein gutes Zeichen nicht nur für das Land, sondern auch für die gesamte Region des westlichen Balkans – und nicht zuletzt für die Hoffnungen der Region auf die Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union.“ Dies schreibt Ivan Vejvida, Direktor sowohl des Balkan Trust for Democracy und des Belgrader Büros des German Marshall Fund.

„In the campaign, Josipovi? came across as a voice of reason and moderation. In a region where charisma has often been coupled with other, more unpleasant personality traits, this uncharismatic leader’s appeal lies in his determination to grapple with endemic corruption and organised crime and his standing for a renewed sense of justice. 

His call for dialogue and cooperation in the region also appealed to voters tired of petty divisions. As a candidate of the opposition Social Democratic Party of Croatia, he rallied the support of both opposition and incumbent parties – the Croatian People’s Party and the Independent Democratic Serb Party – in the second round. A yearning for normalcy and a weariness with populist voices carried the day. His opponent Milan Bandic, the incumbent Mayor of Zagreb, simply did not stand a chance to out-flank Josipovi? with his populist rhetoric. 

In Brussels, the same week saw the members of the new EU Commission being grilled by the European Parliament – with special attention to enlargement. Catherine Ashton, the new EU foreign and security policy high representative, said that the future of the Western Balkans, and the region’s move toward EU membership, will be one of her priorities. 

The Western Balkans have already gained a remarkable amount of momentum on their way toward Euroatlantic integration. The end of 2009 saw several important milestones: visa-free travel for Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia; Serbia put forward its formal request for EU candidate status; Montenegro made a determined step toward achieving candidacy by handing in the answers to the European Commission’s questionnaire, and it was approved for a Membership Action Plan by NATO; Albania moved a notch further in the candidacy process by receiving the Commission’s questionnaire; and Bosnia and Herzegovina put in a request for its own Membership Action Plan at NATO. 

Which is not to say that all is smooth. On the contrary, all of these countries still have serious problems. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example, recent US and EU efforts to help create a more self-sustaining political system (the ‚Butmir Process‘) have stalled. The name dispute between Greece and Macedonia remains intractable. And Kosovo looks likely to need NATO soldiers and EU administrators for a long time. 

Croatian President-elect Josipovi?, on the other hand, has shown his determination to move forward by saying that he wants to improve bilateral relations significantly with Serbia. In Belgrade, President Tadi? took him up immediately, saying that he would come to his new colleague’s inauguration on 18 February or meet him soon after. The two countries would, in a first step, drop the cases for genocide against each other in front of the International Court of Justice in The Hague. 

All the governments in the region have clearly stated their commitment to an EU future and to a peaceful, negotiated resolution of all outstanding bilateral and regional disputes. That is why the forward, if sometimes frustratingly slow, movement toward the EU must continue. It is what reinforces the motivation of the majority of democratically-minded citizens and officials to pursue the hard work of reform and change. Public opinion polls have systematically shown clear majorities over the past ten years for EU integration in all countries – except, paradoxically, in Croatia, which seems to follow the adage that the closer you get, the more qualms you have. But again Josipovic’s victory seems to adamantly negate those qualms.“